No new pandemic has emerged through mid-May 2026, underpinning the market's 89.5% implied probability for that outcome. Official CDC and WHO assessments confirm the recent hantavirus cluster aboard a cruise ship remains contained, with limited human-to-human transmission and case fatality around 38% but no evidence of sustained community spread. Broader surveillance shows no novel pathogen meeting pandemic thresholds, though experts continue monitoring H5N1 avian influenza, mpox, and other zoonotic threats for potential adaptation. Historical patterns of contained outbreaks and strengthened global health security measures reinforce trader consensus that 2026 will likely conclude without a declared pandemic.