Strong global surveillance by the WHO and CDC shows no novel pathogen with sustained human-to-human transmission or the combination of high transmissibility, immune evasion, and rapid geographic spread required for a pandemic declaration in 2026. The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo remains regionally concentrated with low global risk, while mpox and avian influenza strains exhibit moderate or localized transmission without evidence of efficient airborne adaptation in humans. Historical baselines confirm such events occur infrequently, supporting the 94.5% market-implied odds for “No.” An unexpected viral mutation enabling sustained spread or a surveillance gap in remote areas could still alter this trajectory before year-end.