The Democratic Party holds an 86.4% implied probability in the NH-01 House election market, reflecting the district’s D+2 partisan voting index and its narrow Democratic tilt in recent cycles, including a two-point Harris margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid creates an open-seat contest, yet the district’s underlying demographics and voting patterns continue to favor Democratic retention. Republican primary contenders face a steeper path in a seat rated Likely Democratic by forecasters, with limited recent polling or fundraising shifts narrowing that gap. The September 8 primaries will clarify nominees, but structural factors such as the district’s modest Democratic lean and historical turnout patterns sustain trader consensus around the party’s general-election advantage heading into November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
86%
共和党
13%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,848 交易量
86%
共和党
$3,096 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds an 86.4% implied probability in the NH-01 House election market, reflecting the district’s D+2 partisan voting index and its narrow Democratic tilt in recent cycles, including a two-point Harris margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid creates an open-seat contest, yet the district’s underlying demographics and voting patterns continue to favor Democratic retention. Republican primary contenders face a steeper path in a seat rated Likely Democratic by forecasters, with limited recent polling or fundraising shifts narrowing that gap. The September 8 primaries will clarify nominees, but structural factors such as the district’s modest Democratic lean and historical turnout patterns sustain trader consensus around the party’s general-election advantage heading into November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
交易量
$8,945结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds an 86.4% implied probability in the NH-01 House election market, reflecting the district’s D+2 partisan voting index and its narrow Democratic tilt in recent cycles, including a two-point Harris margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid creates an open-seat contest, yet the district’s underlying demographics and voting patterns continue to favor Democratic retention. Republican primary contenders face a steeper path in a seat rated Likely Democratic by forecasters, with limited recent polling or fundraising shifts narrowing that gap. The September 8 primaries will clarify nominees, but structural factors such as the district’s modest Democratic lean and historical turnout patterns sustain trader consensus around the party’s general-election advantage heading into November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,945结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds an 86.4% implied probability in the NH-01 House election market, reflecting the district’s D+2 partisan voting index and its narrow Democratic tilt in recent cycles, including a two-point Harris margin in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Chris Pappas’s retirement to pursue a Senate bid creates an open-seat contest, yet the district’s underlying demographics and voting patterns continue to favor Democratic retention. Republican primary contenders face a steeper path in a seat rated Likely Democratic by forecasters, with limited recent polling or fundraising shifts narrowing that gap. The September 8 primaries will clarify nominees, but structural factors such as the district’s modest Democratic lean and historical turnout patterns sustain trader consensus around the party’s general-election advantage heading into November 3.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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