The Ongo Niua 17 by-election, scheduled for 8 October 2026, stems from the Supreme Court’s invalidation of the 2025 result on bribery grounds. Five candidates—‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, Sitiveni Selui, Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, Sione Tuifio Hui, and ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana—registered after nominations closed in early September, each drawing support from distinct villages across the small, remote constituency. Trader consensus remains tightly clustered near even odds because the electorate is limited in size, candidates run as independents without party structures to consolidate votes, and no single contender has yet established a decisive edge through public campaigning or endorsements. Factors that could widen gaps include village-level mobilization, any late candidate withdrawals or alliances, official confirmation of the final electoral roll, or developments in the parallel Tongatapu 2 by-election that influence broader perceptions of electoral integrity ahead of polling day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Sitiveni Selui 45%
‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau 43%
Sione Tuifio Hui 43%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 42%
Sitiveni Selui
45%
‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau
43%
Sione Tuifio Hui
43%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana
42%
Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala
33%
Sitiveni Selui 45%
‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau 43%
Sione Tuifio Hui 43%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana 42%
Sitiveni Selui
45%
‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau
43%
Sione Tuifio Hui
43%
'Aminiasi Tonga Pau'u Tangimana
42%
Paea 'i Vaha Filimoehala
33%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
市场开放时间： Sep 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Ongo Niua 17 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.
If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
The Ongo Niua 17 by-election, scheduled for 8 October 2026, stems from the Supreme Court’s invalidation of the 2025 result on bribery grounds. Five candidates—‘Aisake Hoatatau Finau, Sitiveni Selui, Paea ‘i Vaha Filimoehala, Sione Tuifio Hui, and ‘Aminiasi Tonga Pau’u Tangimana—registered after nominations closed in early September, each drawing support from distinct villages across the small, remote constituency. Trader consensus remains tightly clustered near even odds because the electorate is limited in size, candidates run as independents without party structures to consolidate votes, and no single contender has yet established a decisive edge through public campaigning or endorsements. Factors that could widen gaps include village-level mobilization, any late candidate withdrawals or alliances, official confirmation of the final electoral roll, or developments in the parallel Tongatapu 2 by-election that influence broader perceptions of electoral integrity ahead of polling day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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