Pierre Poilievre’s position as Conservative Party leader remains secure following his decisive 87.4% endorsement in the mandatory January 2026 leadership review after the 2025 federal election loss. Party constitutional rules and delegate support entrenched his control, with the next formal review or convention falling outside the December 31, 2026 resolution window. Through mid-2026, caucus backing has held steady overall despite limited MP defections, private expressions of concern from some members, and criticism over strategy amid Liberal polling leads. No organized challenge or resignation pressure has materialized to trigger removal procedures. Traders price the high “No” probability on this combination of recent institutional affirmation and absence of viable near-term pathways for change.