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icon for 鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?

鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?

icon for 鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?

鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?

7% 概率
Polymarket
最新

7% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Reckless Ben, otherwise known as Ben Schneider, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government authorities, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Reckless Ben (Benjamin Schneider) faces only misdemeanor charges—stalking, targeted residential picketing, disorderly conduct, and trespassing—stemming from his 2025–2026 Bricks & Minifigs investigation and attempts to serve papers or confront company figures in Utah.** These non-violent offenses carry maximum penalties under one year and frequently resolve with fines, probation, or dismissal rather than incarceration, especially for a first-time defendant with active legal representation. Recent developments reinforce the market’s strong “No” consensus: Provo charges were dismissed in mid-September 2026 “in the interest of justice,” the civil case has shifted to federal court with the gag order eased, and Ben continues releasing content and opening a rival LEGO store. Misdemeanor dockets move slowly, with preliminary hearings and potential appeals unlikely to produce jail time before year-end. The main realistic risks involve a swift conviction at the remaining 4th District hearing followed by an immediate short sentence, or new contempt findings for order violations—both low-probability outcomes given the current trajectory and historical patterns in similar entertainment-industry disputes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Reckless Ben, otherwise known as Ben Schneider, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government authorities, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Reckless Ben, otherwise known as Ben Schneider, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government authorities, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,325
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Reckless Ben, otherwise known as Ben Schneider, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government authorities, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Reckless Ben (Benjamin Schneider) faces only misdemeanor charges—stalking, targeted residential picketing, disorderly conduct, and trespassing—stemming from his 2025–2026 Bricks & Minifigs investigation and attempts to serve papers or confront company figures in Utah.** These non-violent offenses carry maximum penalties under one year and frequently resolve with fines, probation, or dismissal rather than incarceration, especially for a first-time defendant with active legal representation. Recent developments reinforce the market’s strong “No” consensus: Provo charges were dismissed in mid-September 2026 “in the interest of justice,” the civil case has shifted to federal court with the gag order eased, and Ben continues releasing content and opening a rival LEGO store. Misdemeanor dockets move slowly, with preliminary hearings and potential appeals unlikely to produce jail time before year-end. The main realistic risks involve a swift conviction at the remaining 4th District hearing followed by an immediate short sentence, or new contempt findings for order violations—both low-probability outcomes given the current trajectory and historical patterns in similar entertainment-industry disputes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Reckless Ben, otherwise known as Ben Schneider, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government authorities, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the referenced Reckless Ben, otherwise known as Ben Schneider, serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government authorities, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,325
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 8:13 PM ET

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"Reckless Ben会在12月31日前入狱吗?",概率为 7%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 7¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 7%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jul 14, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?"的当前领先者是"Reckless Ben会在12月31日前入狱吗?",仅有 7%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"鲁莽的本在12月31日之前入狱?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。