The overwhelming trader consensus behind Avengers: Doomsday’s 93.5% implied probability rests on the MCU’s unmatched opening-weekend track record and Robert Downey Jr.’s star power in a marquee villain role. Past Avengers films have routinely cleared $200 million domestically in their first three days, powered by broad mainstream appeal and aggressive marketing campaigns. Dune: Messiah, while critically acclaimed, has historically posted solid but far smaller debuts that cater mainly to a dedicated audience. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong critical reception or front-loaded presales for Dune 3 that could lift its opening, yet the scale of the Avengers brand and typical release-date positioning continue to anchor the current market skew.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于《沙丘3》或《复仇者联盟：世界末日》在开幕周末的销量会增加吗？
《沙丘3》或《复仇者联盟：世界末日》在开幕周末的销量会增加吗？
沙丘3
$38,573 交易量
$38,573 交易量
2026-12-20
沙丘3
$38,573 交易量
$38,573 交易量
2026-12-20
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.The overwhelming trader consensus behind Avengers: Doomsday’s 93.5% implied probability rests on the MCU’s unmatched opening-weekend track record and Robert Downey Jr.’s star power in a marquee villain role. Past Avengers films have routinely cleared $200 million domestically in their first three days, powered by broad mainstream appeal and aggressive marketing campaigns. Dune: Messiah, while critically acclaimed, has historically posted solid but far smaller debuts that cater mainly to a dedicated audience. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong critical reception or front-loaded presales for Dune 3 that could lift its opening, yet the scale of the Avengers brand and typical release-date positioning continue to anchor the current market skew.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$38,573结束日期
2026-12-20市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.The overwhelming trader consensus behind Avengers: Doomsday’s 93.5% implied probability rests on the MCU’s unmatched opening-weekend track record and Robert Downey Jr.’s star power in a marquee villain role. Past Avengers films have routinely cleared $200 million domestically in their first three days, powered by broad mainstream appeal and aggressive marketing campaigns. Dune: Messiah, while critically acclaimed, has historically posted solid but far smaller debuts that cater mainly to a dedicated audience. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong critical reception or front-loaded presales for Dune 3 that could lift its opening, yet the scale of the Avengers brand and typical release-date positioning continue to anchor the current market skew.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
交易量
$38,573结束日期
2026-12-20市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming trader consensus behind Avengers: Doomsday’s 93.5% implied probability rests on the MCU’s unmatched opening-weekend track record and Robert Downey Jr.’s star power in a marquee villain role. Past Avengers films have routinely cleared $200 million domestically in their first three days, powered by broad mainstream appeal and aggressive marketing campaigns. Dune: Messiah, while critically acclaimed, has historically posted solid but far smaller debuts that cater mainly to a dedicated audience. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong critical reception or front-loaded presales for Dune 3 that could lift its opening, yet the scale of the Avengers brand and typical release-date positioning continue to anchor the current market skew.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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