Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its explosive pre-sales momentum—already surpassing $50 million domestically months ahead of release—and early tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU crossover event, featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside Avengers, X-Men, and Fantastic Four elements, leverages unmatched brand recognition and holiday timing on December 18, 2026, far outpacing Dune: Part Three’s franchise-record but comparatively modest $100 million-plus domestic outlook. Strong Infinity Vision and premium-format demand further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset would require Dune 3 to deliver exceptional critical reception and word-of-mouth that dramatically shifts audience allocation, though historical patterns and current metrics make this scenario improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于《沙丘3》或《复仇者联盟：世界末日》在开幕周末的销量会增加吗？
《沙丘3》或《复仇者联盟：世界末日》在开幕周末的销量会增加吗？
沙丘3
3% 概率
$53,750 交易量
$53,750 交易量
2026-12-19
沙丘3
3% 概率
$53,750 交易量
$53,750 交易量
2026-12-19
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its explosive pre-sales momentum—already surpassing $50 million domestically months ahead of release—and early tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU crossover event, featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside Avengers, X-Men, and Fantastic Four elements, leverages unmatched brand recognition and holiday timing on December 18, 2026, far outpacing Dune: Part Three’s franchise-record but comparatively modest $100 million-plus domestic outlook. Strong Infinity Vision and premium-format demand further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset would require Dune 3 to deliver exceptional critical reception and word-of-mouth that dramatically shifts audience allocation, though historical patterns and current metrics make this scenario improbable.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$53,750结束日期
2026-12-20市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETAvengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its explosive pre-sales momentum—already surpassing $50 million domestically months ahead of release—and early tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU crossover event, featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside Avengers, X-Men, and Fantastic Four elements, leverages unmatched brand recognition and holiday timing on December 18, 2026, far outpacing Dune: Part Three’s franchise-record but comparatively modest $100 million-plus domestic outlook. Strong Infinity Vision and premium-format demand further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset would require Dune 3 to deliver exceptional critical reception and word-of-mouth that dramatically shifts audience allocation, though historical patterns and current metrics make this scenario improbable.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
交易量
$53,750结束日期
2026-12-20市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETAvengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its explosive pre-sales momentum—already surpassing $50 million domestically months ahead of release—and early tracking projecting a $260–300 million domestic opening weekend. The MCU crossover event, featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside Avengers, X-Men, and Fantastic Four elements, leverages unmatched brand recognition and holiday timing on December 18, 2026, far outpacing Dune: Part Three’s franchise-record but comparatively modest $100 million-plus domestic outlook. Strong Infinity Vision and premium-format demand further reinforce the frontrunner status. A realistic upset would require Dune 3 to deliver exceptional critical reception and word-of-mouth that dramatically shifts audience allocation, though historical patterns and current metrics make this scenario improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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