Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains firmly in his role over a year after narrow Senate confirmation, driving trader consensus toward a 68.5% implied probability that he will not depart by December 31. Recent staff shakeups—including the May 13 resignation of his communications chief over flavored e-cigarette policy and the exit of FDA Commissioner Marty Makary under pressure—highlight internal turbulence at HHS, yet no indications of Kennedy's own resignation or presidential dismissal have emerged. Ongoing congressional testimony, such as his April appearances on the 2026 health budget, and active public engagements underscore his stability, with historical precedent favoring Cabinet retention absent major scandals amid Republican Senate control.