**RFK Jr. remains the confirmed HHS Secretary, with no verified signals of an impending departure by year-end.** As of mid-August 2026, he continues issuing policy announcements, such as recent food policy reforms aligned with administration priorities, while publicly rebutting June media reports questioning his engagement. Those reports cited internal accounts of limited staff interaction and unfilled senior roles, prompting brief resignation rumors that HHS officials quickly denied. Bipartisan criticism and calls for his exit from opponents have persisted since his 2025 confirmation, yet the White House has shown no indication of replacing him. Traders assign roughly 68-70% probability to him staying through December 31, reflecting the absence of concrete exit triggers—such as a presidential statement, resignation filing, or major scandal—within the resolution window, alongside his ongoing exercise of cabinet authority.