Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7,000-7,500 29%
7,500-8,000美元 16%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
$25,057 交易量
$25,057 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
14%
6,000-6,500美元
32%
6,500-7,000美元
35%
7,000-7,500
31%
7,500-8,000美元
16%
高于8,000美元
13%
7,000-7,500 29%
7,500-8,000美元 16%
6,000-6,500美元 15%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
$25,057 交易量
$25,057 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$15,544 交易量
14%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,429 交易量
32%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,389 交易量
35%
7,000-7,500
$1,114 交易量
31%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,289 交易量
16%
高于8,000美元
$2,293 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$25,057结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$25,057结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—26.5% for $7,000-$7,500, 25.0% for $6,500-$7,000, and 24.5% for $6,000-$6,500—reflect a cautious consensus around modest S&P 500 gains from the index's recent close near 7,400, balancing robust Q1 2026 earnings beats (one of the strongest seasons in two decades with EPS growth exceeding 12%) against hotter-than-expected April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, released May 12, which spurred a market pullback and dashed near-term rate cut hopes amid the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% federal funds range. Analyst targets cluster at 7,600-7,650, implying 3-4% upside, but persistent inflation and oil surges heighten risks of sideways trading; watch May CPI and June FOMC for swings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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