Robust corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI capital expenditures and projected 20-25% S&P 500 EPS expansion for 2026, anchors trader sentiment around the >8,000 outcome at 39% implied probability. With the index near 7,750 in mid-August, consensus analyst targets cluster at 7,800-8,100, reflecting upgrades from firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan amid resilient economic data and contained recession risks. Sticky inflation and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions have kept the Fed on hold, supporting valuations while limiting aggressive rate-cut expectations. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in monetary policy guidance represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于高于8,000美元 35%
7,500-8,000美元 21%
7,000-7,500 18%
6,500-7,000美元 13%
$39,542 交易量
$39,542 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
6%
6,000-6,500美元
7%
6,500-7,000美元
13%
7,000-7,500
18%
7,500-8,000美元
21%
高于8,000美元
39%
高于8,000美元 35%
7,500-8,000美元 21%
7,000-7,500 18%
6,500-7,000美元 13%
$39,542 交易量
$39,542 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$20,382 交易量
6%
6,000-6,500美元
$2,301 交易量
7%
6,500-7,000美元
$4,408 交易量
13%
7,000-7,500
$2,460 交易量
18%
7,500-8,000美元
$3,974 交易量
21%
高于8,000美元
$6,018 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI capital expenditures and projected 20-25% S&P 500 EPS expansion for 2026, anchors trader sentiment around the >8,000 outcome at 39% implied probability. With the index near 7,750 in mid-August, consensus analyst targets cluster at 7,800-8,100, reflecting upgrades from firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan amid resilient economic data and contained recession risks. Sticky inflation and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions have kept the Fed on hold, supporting valuations while limiting aggressive rate-cut expectations. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in monetary policy guidance represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$39,542结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI capital expenditures and projected 20-25% S&P 500 EPS expansion for 2026, anchors trader sentiment around the >8,000 outcome at 39% implied probability. With the index near 7,750 in mid-August, consensus analyst targets cluster at 7,800-8,100, reflecting upgrades from firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan amid resilient economic data and contained recession risks. Sticky inflation and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions have kept the Fed on hold, supporting valuations while limiting aggressive rate-cut expectations. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in monetary policy guidance represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$39,542结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETRobust corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI capital expenditures and projected 20-25% S&P 500 EPS expansion for 2026, anchors trader sentiment around the >8,000 outcome at 39% implied probability. With the index near 7,750 in mid-August, consensus analyst targets cluster at 7,800-8,100, reflecting upgrades from firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan amid resilient economic data and contained recession risks. Sticky inflation and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions have kept the Fed on hold, supporting valuations while limiting aggressive rate-cut expectations. Upcoming Q3 earnings and any shifts in monetary policy guidance represent key near-term catalysts that could refine these market-implied odds through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题