The S&P 500, trading near 7,765 in mid-September 2026 after a 13.4% year-to-date advance, sees the >8,000 bucket leading at 38.5% implied probability due to robust corporate earnings growth—particularly in AI-driven sectors—combined with resilient GDP expansion and a solid labor market. Recent Fed actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range under Chair Kevin Warsh amid sticky inflation (core PCE near 3.4%), have pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 5% and tempered multiple expansion. Traders weigh these earnings tailwinds against persistent price pressures and higher-for-longer policy, with the $7,500–8,000 range at 24% reflecting the narrow path to year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于高于8,000美元 29%
7,500-8,000美元 24%
7,000-7,500 15%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$44,819 交易量
$44,819 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
8%
6,000-6,500美元
7%
6,500-7,000美元
10%
7,000-7,500
21%
7,500-8,000美元
24%
高于8,000美元
36%
高于8,000美元 29%
7,500-8,000美元 24%
7,000-7,500 15%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$44,819 交易量
$44,819 交易量
2026-12-31
低于6,000
$23,712 交易量
8%
6,000-6,500美元
$2,380 交易量
7%
6,500-7,000美元
$4,657 交易量
10%
7,000-7,500
$2,774 交易量
21%
7,500-8,000美元
$4,333 交易量
24%
高于8,000美元
$6,963 交易量
36%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The S&P 500, trading near 7,765 in mid-September 2026 after a 13.4% year-to-date advance, sees the >8,000 bucket leading at 38.5% implied probability due to robust corporate earnings growth—particularly in AI-driven sectors—combined with resilient GDP expansion and a solid labor market. Recent Fed actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range under Chair Kevin Warsh amid sticky inflation (core PCE near 3.4%), have pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 5% and tempered multiple expansion. Traders weigh these earnings tailwinds against persistent price pressures and higher-for-longer policy, with the $7,500–8,000 range at 24% reflecting the narrow path to year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$44,819结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The S&P 500, trading near 7,765 in mid-September 2026 after a 13.4% year-to-date advance, sees the >8,000 bucket leading at 38.5% implied probability due to robust corporate earnings growth—particularly in AI-driven sectors—combined with resilient GDP expansion and a solid labor market. Recent Fed actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range under Chair Kevin Warsh amid sticky inflation (core PCE near 3.4%), have pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 5% and tempered multiple expansion. Traders weigh these earnings tailwinds against persistent price pressures and higher-for-longer policy, with the $7,500–8,000 range at 24% reflecting the narrow path to year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$44,819结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThe S&P 500, trading near 7,765 in mid-September 2026 after a 13.4% year-to-date advance, sees the >8,000 bucket leading at 38.5% implied probability due to robust corporate earnings growth—particularly in AI-driven sectors—combined with resilient GDP expansion and a solid labor market. Recent Fed actions, including the September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range under Chair Kevin Warsh amid sticky inflation (core PCE near 3.4%), have pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 5% and tempered multiple expansion. Traders weigh these earnings tailwinds against persistent price pressures and higher-for-longer policy, with the $7,500–8,000 range at 24% reflecting the narrow path to year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题