**Traders assign a 94.5% probability to “No” primarily because repeated diplomatic overtures for a trilateral leaders’ meeting have not produced one despite nearly a year of U.S. mediation efforts.** President Trump has held separate bilateral engagements with both Vladimir Putin (including the 2025 Alaska summit) and Volodymyr Zelensky (White House and NATO-summit meetings in 2026), and has discussed reviving peace talks, including possible trilateral formats in calls and public remarks earlier in the year. European leaders have also pressed for U.S.-hosted Zelensky-Putin talks. However, lower-level negotiations remain stalled over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms, while Russia continues incremental battlefield gains and Ukraine has intensified long-range strikes. No confirmed plans or scheduling signals point to all three leaders appearing together before the end of 2026, leaving roughly four months for any breakthrough. The pricing reflects the consistent pattern of bilateral rather than trilateral engagement and the absence of recent catalysts that would overcome these structural obstacles.