**Bobby Pulido’s decisive victory over incumbent Monica De La Cruz has driven the TX-15 margin market toward a large Democratic win.** With nearly all precincts reporting, Pulido captured roughly 62 percent of the vote to De La Cruz’s 38 percent, producing a margin exceeding 24 points that aligns with the leading “Democrat 12%+” contract. Pre-election polling consistently showed Pulido ahead by double digits in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley district, aided by his celebrity as a Tejano musician and moderate positioning on border security and social programs. De La Cruz’s campaign faced headwinds from broader regional shifts and national issues including immigration enforcement and trade concerns. Trader consensus reflected in the prices now centers on the scale of the Democratic margin rather than the winner, with smaller-margin Republican outcomes priced at minimal levels consistent with the reported results.