The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2027-01-01
是
最新
最新
2027-01-01
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
市场开放时间： Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$872结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$872结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 20, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The balanced 50% market-implied odds for a U.S. bank failure by year-end 2026 stem primarily from offsetting signals in the banking sector: improved capital positions and loan loss provisions at major institutions alongside persistent vulnerabilities in commercial real estate exposures at regional banks. With the Federal Reserve holding the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75% range through mid-2026 and CRE vacancy rates stabilizing, trader consensus incorporates both the sector’s post-2023 resilience and risks from roughly $1.2 trillion in maturing CRE loans facing higher refinancing costs. Key swing factors include upcoming FOMC communications on rate paths, third-quarter bank earnings, and labor market data that could signal either sustained expansion or renewed credit stress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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