Trader consensus prices a congressional stock trading ban before 2027 at just 9% likelihood because bills such as the Stop Insider Trading Act advanced from the House Administration Committee in January 2026 and reached the Union Calendar in February but have received no floor vote or markup in the Senate despite companion measures introduced there in March. Bipartisan proposals, including the No Getting Rich in Congress Act and Restore Trust in Congress Act, have generated co-sponsors yet face delays from competing legislative priorities and the absence of scheduled debate before the 119th Congress adjourns in January 2027. Recent calls for action, such as Senator Warren’s May 15 statement, have not altered the legislative calendar or overcome institutional resistance that traders view as decisive.