The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba—centered on an oil embargo, secondary sanctions targeting military-linked entities and nickel reserves, and expanded intelligence surveillance—has intensified economic hardship on the island through repeated grid collapses and fuel shortages without crossing into direct military engagement. US officials have conducted overflights, positioned naval assets in the Caribbean, and issued public warnings while keeping intervention options open, yet actions to date emphasize coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic operations. Cuban leaders have rejected negotiations amid the standoff but report no active military clashes, and recent bilateral contacts have yielded no breakthroughs. With the calendar advancing into late 2026 and no triggering incident materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability that no US-Cuba military clash will occur this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
16% 概率
$250,265 交易量
$250,265 交易量
2026-12-31
是
16% 概率
$250,265 交易量
$250,265 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba—centered on an oil embargo, secondary sanctions targeting military-linked entities and nickel reserves, and expanded intelligence surveillance—has intensified economic hardship on the island through repeated grid collapses and fuel shortages without crossing into direct military engagement. US officials have conducted overflights, positioned naval assets in the Caribbean, and issued public warnings while keeping intervention options open, yet actions to date emphasize coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic operations. Cuban leaders have rejected negotiations amid the standoff but report no active military clashes, and recent bilateral contacts have yielded no breakthroughs. With the calendar advancing into late 2026 and no triggering incident materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability that no US-Cuba military clash will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
交易量
$250,265结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba—centered on an oil embargo, secondary sanctions targeting military-linked entities and nickel reserves, and expanded intelligence surveillance—has intensified economic hardship on the island through repeated grid collapses and fuel shortages without crossing into direct military engagement. US officials have conducted overflights, positioned naval assets in the Caribbean, and issued public warnings while keeping intervention options open, yet actions to date emphasize coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic operations. Cuban leaders have rejected negotiations amid the standoff but report no active military clashes, and recent bilateral contacts have yielded no breakthroughs. With the calendar advancing into late 2026 and no triggering incident materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability that no US-Cuba military clash will occur this year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$250,265结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETThe Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba—centered on an oil embargo, secondary sanctions targeting military-linked entities and nickel reserves, and expanded intelligence surveillance—has intensified economic hardship on the island through repeated grid collapses and fuel shortages without crossing into direct military engagement. US officials have conducted overflights, positioned naval assets in the Caribbean, and issued public warnings while keeping intervention options open, yet actions to date emphasize coercive diplomacy and sanctions over kinetic operations. Cuban leaders have rejected negotiations amid the standoff but report no active military clashes, and recent bilateral contacts have yielded no breakthroughs. With the calendar advancing into late 2026 and no triggering incident materializing, trader consensus assigns an 84% implied probability that no US-Cuba military clash will occur this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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