Democrat Elaine Luria defeated Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans in the November 3, 2026, general election for Virginia’s 2nd congressional district by a margin of roughly 8.5 percentage points, with Luria receiving about 53 percent of the vote and Kiggans 44.6 percent. This outcome aligns with the market’s dominant pricing on a Democrat 6-9 percent victory range. The result reflects Luria’s successful rematch in a coastal district anchored by Naval Station Norfolk, where voter turnout patterns and limited independent support favored the Democratic candidate. Final certification and any late-counted absentee or provisional ballots remain the primary outstanding factors, though current tallies place the margin well within the leading range.