Incumbent Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D) holds a commanding position in VA-10, a D+7 district encompassing affluent Northern Virginia suburbs like Loudoun and Prince William counties, where college-educated professionals and federal contractors trend heavily Democratic. His 2024 victory margin of over 10 points, combined with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic and weak Republican primary challengers Julie Perry and Sam Wong, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for Democrats. Recent Virginia Supreme Court blockage of mid-decade redistricting preserves the current map favoring Subramanyam ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Realistic challenges include a high-profile GOP recruit, Subramanyam scandal, or strong Republican midterm wave, though historical suburban shifts limit upside.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
89%
共和党
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$306 交易量
89%
共和党
$267 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D) holds a commanding position in VA-10, a D+7 district encompassing affluent Northern Virginia suburbs like Loudoun and Prince William counties, where college-educated professionals and federal contractors trend heavily Democratic. His 2024 victory margin of over 10 points, combined with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic and weak Republican primary challengers Julie Perry and Sam Wong, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for Democrats. Recent Virginia Supreme Court blockage of mid-decade redistricting preserves the current map favoring Subramanyam ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Realistic challenges include a high-profile GOP recruit, Subramanyam scandal, or strong Republican midterm wave, though historical suburban shifts limit upside.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$573结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D) holds a commanding position in VA-10, a D+7 district encompassing affluent Northern Virginia suburbs like Loudoun and Prince William counties, where college-educated professionals and federal contractors trend heavily Democratic. His 2024 victory margin of over 10 points, combined with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic and weak Republican primary challengers Julie Perry and Sam Wong, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for Democrats. Recent Virginia Supreme Court blockage of mid-decade redistricting preserves the current map favoring Subramanyam ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Realistic challenges include a high-profile GOP recruit, Subramanyam scandal, or strong Republican midterm wave, though historical suburban shifts limit upside.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$573结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D) holds a commanding position in VA-10, a D+7 district encompassing affluent Northern Virginia suburbs like Loudoun and Prince William counties, where college-educated professionals and federal contractors trend heavily Democratic. His 2024 victory margin of over 10 points, combined with forecasters like Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic and weak Republican primary challengers Julie Perry and Sam Wong, drives trader consensus to 91.5% for Democrats. Recent Virginia Supreme Court blockage of mid-decade redistricting preserves the current map favoring Subramanyam ahead of the May 26 filing deadline and August 4 primaries. Realistic challenges include a high-profile GOP recruit, Subramanyam scandal, or strong Republican midterm wave, though historical suburban shifts limit upside.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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