Heavy rainfall totals of 10–12 inches across central Indiana upstream of Indianapolis from August 11–13 drove exceptional runoff into the White River basin, producing record crests exceeding 24 ft at Noblesville and Nora. National Weather Service observations and forecasts show the river at Indianapolis gauges, including Raymond Street, reaching or surpassing 20.5 ft with peaks near 20.8–21.1 ft, placing it in moderate flooding (20 ft threshold) but well below major flooding at 25 ft. This recent upstream surge and model consensus on downstream propagation explain trader consensus for the over-20-ft outcome at 89.5% implied probability, while lower tiers remain unlikely absent further intensification. Ongoing NWS hydrograph updates will refine the final crest as the flood wave progresses.