Google’s specialized math initiatives and recent benchmark leadership drive its dominant 62.5% market-implied probability. DeepMind’s May 2026 AI co-mathematician achieved a new high of 48% on FrontierMath Tier 4 and 87% on internal research-level problems, while Gemini Deep Think earned IMO gold in 2025 and solved nine open Erdős problems. These concrete advances in formal reasoning and novel problem-solving outpace competitors. Anthropic’s Claude models hold 16% odds through strong general reasoning, and OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants trail at 12.5% despite solving one major Erdős conjecture in May. With resolution just weeks away, traders appear to weigh Google’s targeted math tooling and demonstrated research outputs most heavily.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Google 63%
Anthropic 15%
OpenAI 13%
Z.ai <1%
$220,021 交易量
$220,021 交易量
2026-06-30
63%
Anthropic
15%
OpenAI
13%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meta
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 63%
Anthropic 15%
OpenAI 13%
Z.ai <1%
$220,021 交易量
$220,021 交易量
2026-06-30
$36,778 交易量
63%
Anthropic
$64,218 交易量
15%
OpenAI
$23,903 交易量
13%
Z.ai
$15,045 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$12,932 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$14,890 交易量
<1%
xAI
$14,650 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$6,400 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,346 交易量
<1%
Meta
$5,734 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$2,769 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$9,130 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$3,097 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,617 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$3,512 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google’s specialized math initiatives and recent benchmark leadership drive its dominant 62.5% market-implied probability. DeepMind’s May 2026 AI co-mathematician achieved a new high of 48% on FrontierMath Tier 4 and 87% on internal research-level problems, while Gemini Deep Think earned IMO gold in 2025 and solved nine open Erdős problems. These concrete advances in formal reasoning and novel problem-solving outpace competitors. Anthropic’s Claude models hold 16% odds through strong general reasoning, and OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants trail at 12.5% despite solving one major Erdős conjecture in May. With resolution just weeks away, traders appear to weigh Google’s targeted math tooling and demonstrated research outputs most heavily.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$220,021结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google’s specialized math initiatives and recent benchmark leadership drive its dominant 62.5% market-implied probability. DeepMind’s May 2026 AI co-mathematician achieved a new high of 48% on FrontierMath Tier 4 and 87% on internal research-level problems, while Gemini Deep Think earned IMO gold in 2025 and solved nine open Erdős problems. These concrete advances in formal reasoning and novel problem-solving outpace competitors. Anthropic’s Claude models hold 16% odds through strong general reasoning, and OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants trail at 12.5% despite solving one major Erdős conjecture in May. With resolution just weeks away, traders appear to weigh Google’s targeted math tooling and demonstrated research outputs most heavily.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$220,021结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google’s specialized math initiatives and recent benchmark leadership drive its dominant 62.5% market-implied probability. DeepMind’s May 2026 AI co-mathematician achieved a new high of 48% on FrontierMath Tier 4 and 87% on internal research-level problems, while Gemini Deep Think earned IMO gold in 2025 and solved nine open Erdős problems. These concrete advances in formal reasoning and novel problem-solving outpace competitors. Anthropic’s Claude models hold 16% odds through strong general reasoning, and OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants trail at 12.5% despite solving one major Erdős conjecture in May. With resolution just weeks away, traders appear to weigh Google’s targeted math tooling and demonstrated research outputs most heavily.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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