Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead the Text Arena math subcategory with the highest Elo ratings, driving the 74% market-implied probability that the company will hold the top spot by end of October. Strong performance on verifiable competition-style problems and agentic reasoning tasks has solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s post-training and safety-focused scaling approach. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Google’s Gemini 3.x releases lead some LiveBench mathematics evaluations yet trail on Arena-specific math votes, capping their implied odds near 13% and 17%. Recent releases such as xAI’s Grok 4.6 have not shifted math rankings, while Chinese labs remain far behind on the public leaderboard. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new frontier model or targeted math fine-tune from the leaders could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 71%
谷歌 14.3%
OpenAI 13%
阿里巴巴 2.3%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Anthropic
71%
谷歌
14%
OpenAI
13%
阿里巴巴
2%
腾讯
2%
DeepSeek
2%
小米
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meta
1%
StepFun
1%
美团
1%
亚马逊
1%
Z.ai
1%
英伟达
1%
MiniMax
1%
字节跳动
1%
Mistral
1%
微软
1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 71%
谷歌 14.3%
OpenAI 13%
阿里巴巴 2.3%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$1,216 交易量
71%
谷歌
$217 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$277 交易量
13%
阿里巴巴
$120 交易量
2%
腾讯
$208 交易量
2%
DeepSeek
$255 交易量
2%
小米
$245 交易量
2%
SpaceXAI
$122 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$120 交易量
1%
Meta
$130 交易量
1%
StepFun
$189 交易量
1%
美团
$169 交易量
1%
亚马逊
$204 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$196 交易量
1%
英伟达
$192 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$209 交易量
1%
字节跳动
$196 交易量
1%
Mistral
$231 交易量
1%
微软
$171 交易量
1%
百度
$171 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead the Text Arena math subcategory with the highest Elo ratings, driving the 74% market-implied probability that the company will hold the top spot by end of October. Strong performance on verifiable competition-style problems and agentic reasoning tasks has solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s post-training and safety-focused scaling approach. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Google’s Gemini 3.x releases lead some LiveBench mathematics evaluations yet trail on Arena-specific math votes, capping their implied odds near 13% and 17%. Recent releases such as xAI’s Grok 4.6 have not shifted math rankings, while Chinese labs remain far behind on the public leaderboard. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new frontier model or targeted math fine-tune from the leaders could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
交易量
$4,839结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead the Text Arena math subcategory with the highest Elo ratings, driving the 74% market-implied probability that the company will hold the top spot by end of October. Strong performance on verifiable competition-style problems and agentic reasoning tasks has solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s post-training and safety-focused scaling approach. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Google’s Gemini 3.x releases lead some LiveBench mathematics evaluations yet trail on Arena-specific math votes, capping their implied odds near 13% and 17%. Recent releases such as xAI’s Grok 4.6 have not shifted math rankings, while Chinese labs remain far behind on the public leaderboard. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new frontier model or targeted math fine-tune from the leaders could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$4,839结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently lead the Text Arena math subcategory with the highest Elo ratings, driving the 74% market-implied probability that the company will hold the top spot by end of October. Strong performance on verifiable competition-style problems and agentic reasoning tasks has solidified trader consensus around Anthropic’s post-training and safety-focused scaling approach. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Google’s Gemini 3.x releases lead some LiveBench mathematics evaluations yet trail on Arena-specific math votes, capping their implied odds near 13% and 17%. Recent releases such as xAI’s Grok 4.6 have not shifted math rankings, while Chinese labs remain far behind on the public leaderboard. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, any new frontier model or targeted math fine-tune from the leaders could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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