Ilia Topuria holds an overwhelming 68% implied probability to finish 2026 as UFC Lightweight champion, reflecting his status as the undisputed titleholder after capturing the vacant belt via first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira in 2025 and his return from a personal hiatus to face interim champion Justin Gaethje in a unification bout tonight. Gaethje’s 12.1% share stems from his interim reign and veteran power, while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 17.6% as the consensus next contender with strong recent form and a targeted title shot potentially arriving in the fall. Lower-priced names like Charles Oliveira and Benoît Saint Denis reflect established records but limited near-term paths past the current hierarchy, with market pricing underscoring Topuria’s perceived dominance and activity advantage heading into the second half of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于伊利亚·托普里亚 68%
阿尔曼·萨鲁基扬 19.3%
贾斯汀·盖奇 8.5%
查尔斯·奥利维拉 7.3%
$605,359 交易量
$605,359 交易量
伊利亚·托普里亚
68%
阿尔曼·萨鲁基扬
16%
查尔斯·奥利维拉
7%
马克斯·霍洛威
<1%
贾斯汀·盖奇
12%
帕迪·皮姆布雷特
<1%
丹·胡克
<1%
马特乌什·加姆罗特
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
3%
Rafael Fiziev
<1%
雷纳托·莫伊卡诺
<1%
战士A
<1%
伊利亚·托普里亚 68%
阿尔曼·萨鲁基扬 19.3%
贾斯汀·盖奇 8.5%
查尔斯·奥利维拉 7.3%
$605,359 交易量
$605,359 交易量
伊利亚·托普里亚
68%
阿尔曼·萨鲁基扬
16%
查尔斯·奥利维拉
7%
马克斯·霍洛威
<1%
贾斯汀·盖奇
12%
帕迪·皮姆布雷特
<1%
丹·胡克
<1%
马特乌什·加姆罗特
<1%
Benoît Saint Denis
3%
Rafael Fiziev
<1%
雷纳托·莫伊卡诺
<1%
战士A
<1%
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ilia Topuria holds an overwhelming 68% implied probability to finish 2026 as UFC Lightweight champion, reflecting his status as the undisputed titleholder after capturing the vacant belt via first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira in 2025 and his return from a personal hiatus to face interim champion Justin Gaethje in a unification bout tonight. Gaethje’s 12.1% share stems from his interim reign and veteran power, while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 17.6% as the consensus next contender with strong recent form and a targeted title shot potentially arriving in the fall. Lower-priced names like Charles Oliveira and Benoît Saint Denis reflect established records but limited near-term paths past the current hierarchy, with market pricing underscoring Topuria’s perceived dominance and activity advantage heading into the second half of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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