Petr Yan leads the market at 71.5% implied probability due to repeated public statements from both fighters favoring an immediate UFC trilogy following Yan’s unanimous decision victory over Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 323 in December 2025. Recent interviews through May 2026 show Dvalishvili prioritizing the rematch once Yan is ready, while the Georgian has taken a non-UFC bout to maintain sharpness. Umar Nurmagomedov sits at 23.4% as the top division contender after their prior meeting, with Cory Sandhagen and Alexandre Pantoja lower at 20.5% and 14.1% respectively on the strength of recent form and stylistic intrigue. Trader consensus reflects the trilogy’s established narrative and timeline uncertainty rather than confirmed booking.