Trump’s second-term diplomacy centers on managing U.S.-China competition and selective engagement with other states, shaping expectations for high-profile meetings. The May 2026 Beijing summit with Xi Jinping produced modest trade pledges on agriculture and beef but left core technology and security issues unresolved, with Xi now invited to Washington later in the year. Parallel tracks include G20 hosting in Miami, ongoing cabinet-level policy sessions, and low-probability outreach to figures such as Kim Jong Un. Market probabilities reflect historical patterns of incumbent-led summits, confirmation of state visits, and diplomatic calendars rather than any single breakthrough. Upcoming multilateral events and bilateral invitations remain the primary variables that could shift outcomes before year-end.