Rising memory costs from AI-driven DRAM shortages have prompted Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, despite the supplier’s Pentagon 1260H designation. However, the 82% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases reflects persistent regulatory uncertainty, congressional opposition over national security risks, and CXMT’s capacity constraints—its fabs run at 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027. Even exploratory testing for China-market devices faces these barriers, while alternatives like SK Hynix’s potential U.S. manufacturing add supply-chain options without similar political exposure. Key catalysts ahead include any Entity List decisions or confirmed supplier validations before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
19% 概率
$21,868 交易量
$21,868 交易量
2026-12-31
是
19% 概率
$21,868 交易量
$21,868 交易量
2026-12-31
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Rising memory costs from AI-driven DRAM shortages have prompted Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, despite the supplier’s Pentagon 1260H designation. However, the 82% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases reflects persistent regulatory uncertainty, congressional opposition over national security risks, and CXMT’s capacity constraints—its fabs run at 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027. Even exploratory testing for China-market devices faces these barriers, while alternatives like SK Hynix’s potential U.S. manufacturing add supply-chain options without similar political exposure. Key catalysts ahead include any Entity List decisions or confirmed supplier validations before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
交易量
$21,868结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETAccording to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Rising memory costs from AI-driven DRAM shortages have prompted Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, despite the supplier’s Pentagon 1260H designation. However, the 82% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases reflects persistent regulatory uncertainty, congressional opposition over national security risks, and CXMT’s capacity constraints—its fabs run at 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027. Even exploratory testing for China-market devices faces these barriers, while alternatives like SK Hynix’s potential U.S. manufacturing add supply-chain options without similar political exposure. Key catalysts ahead include any Entity List decisions or confirmed supplier validations before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$21,868结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETRising memory costs from AI-driven DRAM shortages have prompted Apple to lobby the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT will avoid the Commerce Department’s Entity List, despite the supplier’s Pentagon 1260H designation. However, the 82% market-implied probability of no 2026 purchases reflects persistent regulatory uncertainty, congressional opposition over national security risks, and CXMT’s capacity constraints—its fabs run at 95% utilization with output largely booked through 2027. Even exploratory testing for China-market devices faces these barriers, while alternatives like SK Hynix’s potential U.S. manufacturing add supply-chain options without similar political exposure. Key catalysts ahead include any Entity List decisions or confirmed supplier validations before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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