**Trader consensus at 97.3% for No reflects the U.S. Constitution's natural-born citizen requirement under Article II, which disqualifies South Africa-born Elon Musk from the presidency, combined with his repeated public statements ruling out a 2028 candidacy.** Musk has channeled political activity into supporting Republican candidates through America PAC spending in the 2026 midterms, earlier involvement in government efficiency efforts, and a short-lived 2025 push for a third party that quickly shifted to backing other figures. No official announcement or campaign infrastructure for a personal run has emerged as the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaches. While the market prices an announcement itself rather than ballot eligibility, the structural barrier and absence of intent leave little room for movement absent a dramatic reversal. Late developments such as an unexpected public declaration, major health or legal shifts, or an amendment effort could theoretically alter odds, though none appear imminent.