Trader consensus on a 99% probability against Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027 stems primarily from his constitutional ineligibility under Article II, as he was born in South Africa and is a naturalized citizen. Recent developments reinforce this view, including Musk's decision to shelve plans for a new America Party amid priorities on his companies and relations with Republican figures like Vice President JD Vance. With the calendar now in late 2026 and no public campaign infrastructure or declarations, the market reflects a clear absence of intent. A constitutional amendment to alter eligibility requirements remains the principal structural barrier, though such a change would demand extraordinary congressional and state majorities unlikely in the near term.