Iran's continued engagement with IAEA safeguards, submission of working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference, and participation in bilateral nuclear talks with the United States have sustained trader expectations against formal withdrawal before 2027. Parliamentary proposals and public calls for exit, including a July 2026 statement by a senior lawmaker and earlier bills after U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in March 2026, have served mainly as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering Article X notification to the UN. No official written notice or implementing legislation has advanced to completion, consistent with historical patterns where such threats precede negotiations instead of immediate departure, which would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and suppliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
$364,435 交易量
$364,435 交易量
2026-12-30
是
9% 概率
$364,435 交易量
$364,435 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's continued engagement with IAEA safeguards, submission of working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference, and participation in bilateral nuclear talks with the United States have sustained trader expectations against formal withdrawal before 2027. Parliamentary proposals and public calls for exit, including a July 2026 statement by a senior lawmaker and earlier bills after U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in March 2026, have served mainly as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering Article X notification to the UN. No official written notice or implementing legislation has advanced to completion, consistent with historical patterns where such threats precede negotiations instead of immediate departure, which would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and suppliers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$364,435结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's continued engagement with IAEA safeguards, submission of working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference, and participation in bilateral nuclear talks with the United States have sustained trader expectations against formal withdrawal before 2027. Parliamentary proposals and public calls for exit, including a July 2026 statement by a senior lawmaker and earlier bills after U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in March 2026, have served mainly as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering Article X notification to the UN. No official written notice or implementing legislation has advanced to completion, consistent with historical patterns where such threats precede negotiations instead of immediate departure, which would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and suppliers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$364,435结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's continued engagement with IAEA safeguards, submission of working papers to the 2026 NPT Review Conference, and participation in bilateral nuclear talks with the United States have sustained trader expectations against formal withdrawal before 2027. Parliamentary proposals and public calls for exit, including a July 2026 statement by a senior lawmaker and earlier bills after U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in March 2026, have served mainly as diplomatic leverage amid enrichment disputes and fragile ceasefires rather than triggering Article X notification to the UN. No official written notice or implementing legislation has advanced to completion, consistent with historical patterns where such threats precede negotiations instead of immediate departure, which would isolate Iran from nonproliferation frameworks and suppliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题