French prosecutors have urged the Paris Court of Appeal to uphold Marine Le Pen’s five-year ineligibility penalty stemming from her March 2025 embezzlement conviction over European Parliament funds, while forgoing immediate enforcement. Hearings concluded in February 2026, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could decide whether the ban remains in place ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. A further appeal to the Cour de Cassation risks extending proceedings into 2027, preserving the restriction through the end of 2026. Traders assign a 72 percent probability that Le Pen will not secure a reversal by year-end, reflecting the prosecution’s case strength, standard appellate patterns in French financial misconduct matters, and procedural timelines that limit full clearance before the resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于马琳·勒庞（ Marine Le Pen ）是否会赢得她在2026年取消无资格禁令的上诉？
马琳·勒庞（ Marine Le Pen ）是否会赢得她在2026年取消无资格禁令的上诉？
是
$12,058 交易量
$12,058 交易量
2026-03-31
是
$12,058 交易量
$12,058 交易量
2026-03-31
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.French prosecutors have urged the Paris Court of Appeal to uphold Marine Le Pen’s five-year ineligibility penalty stemming from her March 2025 embezzlement conviction over European Parliament funds, while forgoing immediate enforcement. Hearings concluded in February 2026, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could decide whether the ban remains in place ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. A further appeal to the Cour de Cassation risks extending proceedings into 2027, preserving the restriction through the end of 2026. Traders assign a 72 percent probability that Le Pen will not secure a reversal by year-end, reflecting the prosecution’s case strength, standard appellate patterns in French financial misconduct matters, and procedural timelines that limit full clearance before the resolution deadline.
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
交易量
$12,058结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.French prosecutors have urged the Paris Court of Appeal to uphold Marine Le Pen’s five-year ineligibility penalty stemming from her March 2025 embezzlement conviction over European Parliament funds, while forgoing immediate enforcement. Hearings concluded in February 2026, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could decide whether the ban remains in place ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. A further appeal to the Cour de Cassation risks extending proceedings into 2027, preserving the restriction through the end of 2026. Traders assign a 72 percent probability that Le Pen will not secure a reversal by year-end, reflecting the prosecution’s case strength, standard appellate patterns in French financial misconduct matters, and procedural timelines that limit full clearance before the resolution deadline.
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$12,058结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...French prosecutors have urged the Paris Court of Appeal to uphold Marine Le Pen’s five-year ineligibility penalty stemming from her March 2025 embezzlement conviction over European Parliament funds, while forgoing immediate enforcement. Hearings concluded in February 2026, with a ruling scheduled for July 7 that could decide whether the ban remains in place ahead of the 2027 presidential contest. A further appeal to the Cour de Cassation risks extending proceedings into 2027, preserving the restriction through the end of 2026. Traders assign a 72 percent probability that Le Pen will not secure a reversal by year-end, reflecting the prosecution’s case strength, standard appellate patterns in French financial misconduct matters, and procedural timelines that limit full clearance before the resolution deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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