Tesla’s decision to prioritize limited robotaxi fleet deployment over retail sales has anchored trader consensus around an 81.5% probability that no Cybercab reaches consumers at $30,000 or less by year-end. Production of the steering-wheel-less vehicle began at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026, yet output remains modest with only dozens of units operating paid rides in Austin since the September 3 launch. Tesla removed volume-production targets for 2026 from its July update, shifted emphasis to fleet interest forms, and faces an active NHTSA review of certification without traditional controls due by September 30. While the original sub-$30,000 target persists as a goal, no base MSRP has been published and credible reporting points to consumer availability slipping into 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
18% 概率
$56,839 交易量
$56,839 交易量
2026-12-31
是
18% 概率
$56,839 交易量
$56,839 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s decision to prioritize limited robotaxi fleet deployment over retail sales has anchored trader consensus around an 81.5% probability that no Cybercab reaches consumers at $30,000 or less by year-end. Production of the steering-wheel-less vehicle began at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026, yet output remains modest with only dozens of units operating paid rides in Austin since the September 3 launch. Tesla removed volume-production targets for 2026 from its July update, shifted emphasis to fleet interest forms, and faces an active NHTSA review of certification without traditional controls due by September 30. While the original sub-$30,000 target persists as a goal, no base MSRP has been published and credible reporting points to consumer availability slipping into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$56,839结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s decision to prioritize limited robotaxi fleet deployment over retail sales has anchored trader consensus around an 81.5% probability that no Cybercab reaches consumers at $30,000 or less by year-end. Production of the steering-wheel-less vehicle began at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026, yet output remains modest with only dozens of units operating paid rides in Austin since the September 3 launch. Tesla removed volume-production targets for 2026 from its July update, shifted emphasis to fleet interest forms, and faces an active NHTSA review of certification without traditional controls due by September 30. While the original sub-$30,000 target persists as a goal, no base MSRP has been published and credible reporting points to consumer availability slipping into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$56,839结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETTesla’s decision to prioritize limited robotaxi fleet deployment over retail sales has anchored trader consensus around an 81.5% probability that no Cybercab reaches consumers at $30,000 or less by year-end. Production of the steering-wheel-less vehicle began at Gigafactory Texas in early 2026, yet output remains modest with only dozens of units operating paid rides in Austin since the September 3 launch. Tesla removed volume-production targets for 2026 from its July update, shifted emphasis to fleet interest forms, and faces an active NHTSA review of certification without traditional controls due by September 30. While the original sub-$30,000 target persists as a goal, no base MSRP has been published and credible reporting points to consumer availability slipping into 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题