The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation tied to longstanding narco-terrorism indictments, establishing the baseline for this market. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable operations or intelligence-driven targets in the intervening months. No other heads of state face active US ground actions or equivalent legal exposure that would support a repeat extraction by year-end. Diplomatic and sovereignty constraints, combined with shifting administration priorities toward tariffs, Iran-related tensions, and domestic midterms, have not produced additional qualifying scenarios. Historical precedents like the 1990 Noriega case remain outliers, and current reporting shows no verified planning or execution against remaining candidates. Resolution hinges on direct US personnel involvement in a qualifying capture through December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$82,589 交易量
$82,589 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$82,589 交易量
$82,589 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation tied to longstanding narco-terrorism indictments, establishing the baseline for this market. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable operations or intelligence-driven targets in the intervening months. No other heads of state face active US ground actions or equivalent legal exposure that would support a repeat extraction by year-end. Diplomatic and sovereignty constraints, combined with shifting administration priorities toward tariffs, Iran-related tensions, and domestic midterms, have not produced additional qualifying scenarios. Historical precedents like the 1990 Noriega case remain outliers, and current reporting shows no verified planning or execution against remaining candidates. Resolution hinges on direct US personnel involvement in a qualifying capture through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$82,589结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation tied to longstanding narco-terrorism indictments, establishing the baseline for this market. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable operations or intelligence-driven targets in the intervening months. No other heads of state face active US ground actions or equivalent legal exposure that would support a repeat extraction by year-end. Diplomatic and sovereignty constraints, combined with shifting administration priorities toward tariffs, Iran-related tensions, and domestic midterms, have not produced additional qualifying scenarios. Historical precedents like the 1990 Noriega case remain outliers, and current reporting shows no verified planning or execution against remaining candidates. Resolution hinges on direct US personnel involvement in a qualifying capture through December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$82,589结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETThe US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation tied to longstanding narco-terrorism indictments, establishing the baseline for this market. Trader consensus favoring "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable operations or intelligence-driven targets in the intervening months. No other heads of state face active US ground actions or equivalent legal exposure that would support a repeat extraction by year-end. Diplomatic and sovereignty constraints, combined with shifting administration priorities toward tariffs, Iran-related tensions, and domestic midterms, have not produced additional qualifying scenarios. Historical precedents like the 1990 Noriega case remain outliers, and current reporting shows no verified planning or execution against remaining candidates. Resolution hinges on direct US personnel involvement in a qualifying capture through December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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