The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a targeted raid has already resolved one instance of this type of operation for the year. Trader consensus on "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable active indictments, military planning, or diplomatic triggers that would support a second capture before year-end. Ongoing US involvement in Venezuela centers on transition governance, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than additional leadership extractions, while broader regional tensions (including with Cuba) have not escalated to similar kinetic thresholds. Historical precedent shows such high-profile detentions of foreign heads of state remain exceptional, constrained by legal, logistical, and alliance considerations, with no scheduled events or verified intelligence signals indicating another imminent operation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$80,974 交易量
$80,974 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 概率
$80,974 交易量
$80,974 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a targeted raid has already resolved one instance of this type of operation for the year. Trader consensus on "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable active indictments, military planning, or diplomatic triggers that would support a second capture before year-end. Ongoing US involvement in Venezuela centers on transition governance, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than additional leadership extractions, while broader regional tensions (including with Cuba) have not escalated to similar kinetic thresholds. Historical precedent shows such high-profile detentions of foreign heads of state remain exceptional, constrained by legal, logistical, and alliance considerations, with no scheduled events or verified intelligence signals indicating another imminent operation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$80,974结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a targeted raid has already resolved one instance of this type of operation for the year. Trader consensus on "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable active indictments, military planning, or diplomatic triggers that would support a second capture before year-end. Ongoing US involvement in Venezuela centers on transition governance, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than additional leadership extractions, while broader regional tensions (including with Cuba) have not escalated to similar kinetic thresholds. Historical precedent shows such high-profile detentions of foreign heads of state remain exceptional, constrained by legal, logistical, and alliance considerations, with no scheduled events or verified intelligence signals indicating another imminent operation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$80,974结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US military's January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a targeted raid has already resolved one instance of this type of operation for the year. Trader consensus on "No" at 94.5% reflects the absence of comparable active indictments, military planning, or diplomatic triggers that would support a second capture before year-end. Ongoing US involvement in Venezuela centers on transition governance, sanctions relief, and oil-sector negotiations rather than additional leadership extractions, while broader regional tensions (including with Cuba) have not escalated to similar kinetic thresholds. Historical precedent shows such high-profile detentions of foreign heads of state remain exceptional, constrained by legal, logistical, and alliance considerations, with no scheduled events or verified intelligence signals indicating another imminent operation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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