Recent U.S.-Iran military exchanges, centered on airstrikes and naval actions around the Strait of Hormuz since the February 2026 onset of Operation Epic Fury, have remained limited in scope without large-scale ground deployments. Ongoing ceasefire extensions, a June memorandum of understanding, and active mediation involving Oman for renewed shipping arrangements reflect trader focus on de-escalation through diplomacy and economic pressure rather than occupation. With the 2026 conflict shifting toward brinkmanship over maritime access and nuclear talks, the absence of announced invasion plans or mobilization for sustained troop commitments through late 2026 supports the 82.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion before 2027.