Historical conversion rates for spot-kicks awarded in regulation or extra time during FIFA World Cup matches stand at 79.1% since 1978, aligning closely with the current implied probability for a made outcome on the tournament's first penalty. This edge stems from elite attackers maintaining strong accuracy under pressure in open-play situations, supported by recent tournament data showing consistent success above 75% outside shootouts, where rates drop nearer 69%. With no confirmed injuries or form issues affecting early match officiating or taker selection ahead of the 2026 group stage, the wisdom of crowds in pricing reflects these established patterns in penalty execution and goalkeeper positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Made
最新
最新
2026-07-20
Made
最新
最新
2026-07-20
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Historical conversion rates for spot-kicks awarded in regulation or extra time during FIFA World Cup matches stand at 79.1% since 1978, aligning closely with the current implied probability for a made outcome on the tournament's first penalty. This edge stems from elite attackers maintaining strong accuracy under pressure in open-play situations, supported by recent tournament data showing consistent success above 75% outside shootouts, where rates drop nearer 69%. With no confirmed injuries or form issues affecting early match officiating or taker selection ahead of the 2026 group stage, the wisdom of crowds in pricing reflects these established patterns in penalty execution and goalkeeper positioning.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
交易量
$6,124结束日期
2026-07-20市场开放时间
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Historical conversion rates for spot-kicks awarded in regulation or extra time during FIFA World Cup matches stand at 79.1% since 1978, aligning closely with the current implied probability for a made outcome on the tournament's first penalty. This edge stems from elite attackers maintaining strong accuracy under pressure in open-play situations, supported by recent tournament data showing consistent success above 75% outside shootouts, where rates drop nearer 69%. With no confirmed injuries or form issues affecting early match officiating or taker selection ahead of the 2026 group stage, the wisdom of crowds in pricing reflects these established patterns in penalty execution and goalkeeper positioning.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,124结束日期
2026-07-20市场开放时间
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historical conversion rates for spot-kicks awarded in regulation or extra time during FIFA World Cup matches stand at 79.1% since 1978, aligning closely with the current implied probability for a made outcome on the tournament's first penalty. This edge stems from elite attackers maintaining strong accuracy under pressure in open-play situations, supported by recent tournament data showing consistent success above 75% outside shootouts, where rates drop nearer 69%. With no confirmed injuries or form issues affecting early match officiating or taker selection ahead of the 2026 group stage, the wisdom of crowds in pricing reflects these established patterns in penalty execution and goalkeeper positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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