France enters Group I as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus, reflecting its status as 2022 runners-up, FIFA world number one ranking, and exceptional squad depth featuring established stars alongside emerging talents like Michael Olise and Rayan Cherki. Norway’s 23.5% implied probability stems from Erling Haaland’s prolific qualifying output and the side’s first World Cup appearance since 1998, positioning it as the most credible challenger for a top-two finish. Senegal sits at 12.5% on the back of its CAF qualification success, physical style, and experienced core including Sadio Mané and Kalidou Koulibaly, though a younger squad under new coach Pape Thiaw introduces some uncertainty. Iraq’s minimal 0.9% share aligns with its lower ranking and limited recent international pedigree. The June 16–26 schedule in North American venues leaves little time for further major roster developments before kickoff.