France enters the 2026 World Cup as the clear frontrunner to top Group I, with traders assigning a 65.5% implied probability driven by superior squad depth, experience in major tournaments, and a balanced attack featuring Kylian Mbappé alongside emerging options. Norway sits at 23.5% on the back of an undefeated qualifying campaign that featured elite attacking output and Erling Haaland’s finishing threat, though defensive vulnerabilities could limit their edge in a compact group. Senegal at 12.5% benefits from recent African Nations Cup pedigree and organized counterattacking structure, while Iraq trails at 0.9% as the clear underdog despite disciplined qualifying results. The group’s early fixtures—France versus Senegal and Iraq versus Norway on June 16—will test these dynamics immediately, with recent form and squad fitness shaping trader adjustments ahead of the June 26 finale.