**Favorites to reach the 2026 World Cup semifinals are led by Spain, France, England, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal, and Germany, reflecting their superior squad depth, recent major tournament pedigree, and consistent international form heading into the expanded 48-team event.** Spain enters with momentum from Euro 2024 and Nations League success, while France and England boast balanced rosters and deep benches suited for a grueling knockout path. Argentina, the defending champions, rely on Lionel Messi’s experience and attacking quality, though early group-stage results have begun testing depth across the field. Brazil’s draw with Morocco highlighted vulnerabilities in defense, prompting quick adjustments in possession and pressing. The co-hosts (USA, Mexico, Canada) saw mixed openers—USA’s 4-1 win over Paraguay boosted momentum—yet face tougher tests against stronger groups. With the tournament still in its opening week, trader consensus emphasizes these nations’ historical semifinal rates and ability to navigate the new format’s increased matches, while monitoring injuries, rotations, and early results that could shift implied probabilities.