Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at an implied 17% probability, narrowly ahead of France, as trader consensus reflects La Roja’s Euro 2024 title, consistent Nations League success, and a balanced squad featuring Lamine Yamal alongside experienced midfield control. France sits close behind due to exceptional squad depth and repeated final appearances in recent cycles, while England, Portugal, and defending champions Argentina remain tightly grouped on the strength of attacking talent and historical knockout resilience. Recent pre-tournament power rankings and injury updates, including absences for several contenders, have kept probabilities clustered among the leading European sides and Argentina rather than opening significant gaps. The expanded 48-team format and co-host dynamics further support the competitive spread reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于西班牙 17.0%
法国 16.1%
英格兰 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,960,270,256 交易量
$1,960,270,256 交易量
西班牙
17%
法国
16%
英格兰
11%
葡萄牙
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
4%
挪威
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
土耳其
1%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
Austria
<1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
瑞典
<1%
South Korea
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
埃及
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
西班牙 17.0%
法国 16.1%
英格兰 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,960,270,256 交易量
$1,960,270,256 交易量
西班牙
17%
法国
16%
英格兰
11%
葡萄牙
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
4%
挪威
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
土耳其
1%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
Austria
<1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
瑞典
<1%
South Korea
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
埃及
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at an implied 17% probability, narrowly ahead of France, as trader consensus reflects La Roja’s Euro 2024 title, consistent Nations League success, and a balanced squad featuring Lamine Yamal alongside experienced midfield control. France sits close behind due to exceptional squad depth and repeated final appearances in recent cycles, while England, Portugal, and defending champions Argentina remain tightly grouped on the strength of attacking talent and historical knockout resilience. Recent pre-tournament power rankings and injury updates, including absences for several contenders, have kept probabilities clustered among the leading European sides and Argentina rather than opening significant gaps. The expanded 48-team format and co-host dynamics further support the competitive spread reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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