South Korea’s former President Yoon Suk-yeol remains in custody at the Seoul Detention Centre following his February 2026 conviction for leading an insurrection tied to the December 2024 martial law declaration. A Seoul court imposed a life sentence on that charge, while separate proceedings have produced additional prison terms, including a seven-year sentence upheld on appeal in April 2026 for obstructing arrest. With the insurrection ruling now under appellate review and multiple other indictments still active, procedural timelines point to continued detention well into 2027. Traders assign an 84 percent probability to the “No” outcome because any release would require either a successful appeal overturning the core conviction or extraordinary executive intervention, neither of which appears imminent under current judicial and political conditions.