Tony Hirsch Jr.'s majority decision upset over undefeated prospect Robert Meriwether III in their 8-round lightweight prelim at Zuffa Boxing 5 on April 5 has locked in trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for Jr., reflecting judges' scorecards of 76-76, 77-75, and 78-74 after a competitive toe-to-toe battle. The Oakland fighter, entering as a +900 underdog with a 7-0-2 record, leveraged effective jabs, body shots, and late-round pressure to outwork III's superior speed from range, handing the 10-0 Louisville native his first pro loss and improving Hirsch to 8-0-2. Both made weight at 135 lbs with no reported issues at weigh-ins. Realistic disruptions remain minimal—only a rare successful appeal or scorecard protest could alter resolution, though none has surfaced.