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Claude 5 预测与赔率

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Claude 5 released by…?

Claude 5 released by…?

74%

September 30, 2026

$4M 交易量

$63.4K Liq.

204

Ends 15 天前

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

Will Claude go down on __ days in May?

31%

12+

$33.5K 交易量

$8.9K Liq.

Ends 16 天内

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?

18%

45%+

$283K 交易量

$4.5K Liq.

12

Ends 大约 2 个月内

Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Anthropic Claude score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

55%

50%+

$61.9K 交易量

$2.0K Liq.

12

Ends 大约 2 个月内

Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

Best AI model on May 16? (Style Control Off)

98%

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

$26.6K 交易量

$55.4K Liq.

Ends 大约 22 小时内

Claude Mythos released by…?

Claude Mythos released by…?

7%

June 30

$367K 交易量

$8.2K Liq.

19

Ends 15 天前

Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

25%

$11.7K 交易量

$3.5K Liq.

23

Ends 大约 2 个月前

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Atreides

$1.8K 交易量

$1 Liq.

Ends 1 天前

GPT-5.6 released by...?

GPT-5.6 released by...?

94%

July 31

$42.1K 交易量

$21.9K Liq.

1

Ends 3 个月内

Bordeaux (Doubles): Halys/Herbert vs Cukierman/Hilderbrand

Bordeaux (Doubles): Halys/Herbert vs Cukierman/Hilderbrand

72%

Halys/Herbert

$1 交易量

$208 Liq.

Ends 7 天内

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

94%

December 31, 2026

$3M 交易量

$6.3K Liq.

123

Ends 大约 2 个月内

Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs VP.Future 2 (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage

Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs VP.Future 2 (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage

100%

Clutchain

$778 交易量

Ends 大约 4 小时前

LA-05 House Election Winner

LA-05 House Election Winner

88%

Republican Party

$4.5K 交易量

$20.0K Liq.

Ends 6 个月内

Ted Cruz # posts May 5 - May 12, 2026?

Ted Cruz # posts May 5 - May 12, 2026?

97%

120-139

$44.5K 交易量

$1.8K Liq.

Ends 2 天前

LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs

LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qualifier Playoffs

100%

LYON

$154K 交易量

Ends 大约 1 个月前

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Prospects vs ENJOY (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

CYBERSHOKE Prospects

$705 交易量

Ends 4 天前

Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #5 Playoffs

100%

Clair Obscur

$4.9K 交易量

$1 Liq.

Ends 1 天前

Bordeaux (Doubles): Arneodo/Polmans vs Blancaneaux/Tabur

Bordeaux (Doubles): Arneodo/Polmans vs Blancaneaux/Tabur

85%

Arneodo/Polmans

$6 交易量

$74 Liq.

Ends 6 天内

Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Concrete FDV above ___ one day after launch?

92%

$50M

$503 交易量

$3.3K Liq.

Ends 超过 1 年内

Rocket League: NRG Esports vs Five Fears (BO5) - RLCS World Championship Group B

Rocket League: NRG Esports vs Five Fears (BO5) - RLCS World Championship Group B

93%

NRG Esports

$0 交易量

$2.6K Liq.

Ends 6 天内

常见问题

Polymarket 是全球最大的预测市场,你可以通过交易与突发新闻、政治、体育、选举、加密货币、金融、科技、文化等相关的事物(包括 Claude 5 等话题)来保持信息灵通并从你的知识中获利。

Polymarket 目前拥有 107 个活跃的 Claude 5 市场,让你可以跟踪或交易如"Claude 5 released by…?"等预测。无论你是在跟踪广泛讨论的事件还是小众结果,该平台基于超过 $7.2M 的交易量汇聚实时赔率,提供粉丝和投资者情绪的全面视图。

每个 Polymarket 市场都是一个是/否问题,例如"Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?"。你可以购买"是"或"否"结果的份额。价格反映了众包的赔率和概率。例如,如果"是"的价格为 30 美分,则表示有 30% 的概率。市场根据官方结果进行结算。对于多结果事件,例如"Claude 5 released by…?",你只需交易你认为会获胜的特定结果即可。

截至今天,最活跃的市场是"Claude 5 released by…?",市场目前认为 September 30, 2026 的概率为 74%。这些赔率会随着新信息的出现和用户的交易实时更新,与传统博彩公司的赔率相比,提供了市场认为会发生什么的动态快照。

它能穿透噪音。与民调或专家评论不同,Polymarket 向你展示由金融信念支撑的 Claude 5 预测实时赔率,这些赔率通常比专家或调查更快、更准确。你可以获得数千名交易者对实际会发生什么的无偏见看法,这通常比民调更准确。此外,你可以交易份额,如果你的预测准确,还可能从中获利。