Trader consensus favors May 2026 ranking as the second-hottest May on record at 58.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA's May 14 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion raising the chance of El Niño emergence to 82% during May-July—conditions that typically amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific convection and heat release. Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-May show above-average anomalies building on April 2026's fourth-warmest status and near-record sea surface temperatures, positioning it near but trailing 2024's benchmark while outpacing 2023. A 34.5% shot at first place hinges on late-month intensification amid model uncertainty in peak El Niño strength; Copernicus and NOAA full-month bulletins due early June could shift odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 59%
1st hottest 35%
3rd hottest 7.4%
4th or lower 1.8%
$95,845 Vol.
$95,845 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
35%
2nd hottest
59%
3rd hottest
7%
4th or lower
2%
2nd hottest 59%
1st hottest 35%
3rd hottest 7.4%
4th or lower 1.8%
$95,845 Vol.
$95,845 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
1st hottest
$9,738 Vol.
35%
2nd hottest
$1,910 Vol.
59%
3rd hottest
$38,550 Vol.
7%
4th or lower
$45,648 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus favors May 2026 ranking as the second-hottest May on record at 58.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA's May 14 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion raising the chance of El Niño emergence to 82% during May-July—conditions that typically amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific convection and heat release. Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-May show above-average anomalies building on April 2026's fourth-warmest status and near-record sea surface temperatures, positioning it near but trailing 2024's benchmark while outpacing 2023. A 34.5% shot at first place hinges on late-month intensification amid model uncertainty in peak El Niño strength; Copernicus and NOAA full-month bulletins due early June could shift odds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
ভলিউম
$95,845শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus favors May 2026 ranking as the second-hottest May on record at 58.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA's May 14 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion raising the chance of El Niño emergence to 82% during May-July—conditions that typically amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific convection and heat release. Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-May show above-average anomalies building on April 2026's fourth-warmest status and near-record sea surface temperatures, positioning it near but trailing 2024's benchmark while outpacing 2023. A 34.5% shot at first place hinges on late-month intensification amid model uncertainty in peak El Niño strength; Copernicus and NOAA full-month bulletins due early June could shift odds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ভলিউম
$95,845শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors May 2026 ranking as the second-hottest May on record at 58.5% implied probability, driven by NOAA's May 14 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion raising the chance of El Niño emergence to 82% during May-July—conditions that typically amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific convection and heat release. Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data through mid-May show above-average anomalies building on April 2026's fourth-warmest status and near-record sea surface temperatures, positioning it near but trailing 2024's benchmark while outpacing 2023. A 34.5% shot at first place hinges on late-month intensification amid model uncertainty in peak El Niño strength; Copernicus and NOAA full-month bulletins due early June could shift odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা