Polymarket traders price a 62% implied probability of a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at its July 2026 meeting, driven by Q1 GDP contraction of 0.5% year-over-year—the first in three years—announced late April, alongside March CPI holding steady at 5.9% annually amid disinflationary pressures. The central bank's April 24 decision to cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5%, its eighth consecutive easing move, narrowed its 2026 average rate forecast to 14–14.5%, signaling a cautious cutting cycle nearing its end despite persistent inflation risks. Economic weakness bolsters decrease odds over no change at 36.5%, while hikes remain unlikely at 5.3%; watch June 19 data for policy shifts.