Recent polls for the September 20, 2026, Berlin state election show a tight multi-party contest, with the Left Party often leading at around 19–22%, followed by the CDU and AfD tied or within 1–2 points at 18–20% each. The CDU, running with Stefan Evers after internal changes in the governing coalition, holds a modest polling edge or tie in several surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forsa. The AfD, led by Kristin Brinker, has gained ground nationally and in eastern states amid broader voter shifts on immigration and security issues, briefly topping Berlin-specific polls in July. Traders assign the CDU a 68.5% implied probability of finishing ahead in raw vote share because its established organizational base and incumbency advantages in a fragmented field appear sufficient to maintain a narrow lead over the AfD, even as both trail the Left and face coalition constraints from the longstanding firewall against AfD partnerships. No major late-breaking events have decisively altered this positioning in the past month.