Recent euro area inflation data, including a rise to 3.3% in August driven primarily by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 28, 2026 ECB meeting. Markets assign an 84% implied probability to unchanged rates at the prevailing level following the widely anticipated September adjustment, reflecting expectations that core pressures remain contained and economic growth shows resilience without broad second-round effects. A 16% chance of a further 25 basis point tightening captures residual risks from sustained energy costs, though most analysts anticipate a data-dependent pause given softening underlying measures and limited evidence of wage-price spirals. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in oil or gas markets within the resolution window remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$80,309 Vol.
$80,309 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$80,309 Vol.
$80,309 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$6,033 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$11,216 Vol.
<1%
No change
$29,639 Vol.
84%
25 bps increase
$22,360 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$11,062 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent euro area inflation data, including a rise to 3.3% in August driven primarily by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 28, 2026 ECB meeting. Markets assign an 84% implied probability to unchanged rates at the prevailing level following the widely anticipated September adjustment, reflecting expectations that core pressures remain contained and economic growth shows resilience without broad second-round effects. A 16% chance of a further 25 basis point tightening captures residual risks from sustained energy costs, though most analysts anticipate a data-dependent pause given softening underlying measures and limited evidence of wage-price spirals. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in oil or gas markets within the resolution window remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
ভলিউম
$80,309শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:01 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent euro area inflation data, including a rise to 3.3% in August driven primarily by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 28, 2026 ECB meeting. Markets assign an 84% implied probability to unchanged rates at the prevailing level following the widely anticipated September adjustment, reflecting expectations that core pressures remain contained and economic growth shows resilience without broad second-round effects. A 16% chance of a further 25 basis point tightening captures residual risks from sustained energy costs, though most analysts anticipate a data-dependent pause given softening underlying measures and limited evidence of wage-price spirals. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in oil or gas markets within the resolution window remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$80,309শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 12:01 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent euro area inflation data, including a rise to 3.3% in August driven primarily by energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, has shaped trader positioning ahead of the October 28, 2026 ECB meeting. Markets assign an 84% implied probability to unchanged rates at the prevailing level following the widely anticipated September adjustment, reflecting expectations that core pressures remain contained and economic growth shows resilience without broad second-round effects. A 16% chance of a further 25 basis point tightening captures residual risks from sustained energy costs, though most analysts anticipate a data-dependent pause given softening underlying measures and limited evidence of wage-price spirals. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in oil or gas markets within the resolution window remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা