Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 Vol.
$553,270 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
Yes
40-64
No
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 Vol.
$553,270 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
<40
$167,892 Vol.
Yes
40-64
$113,852 Vol.
No
65-89
$116,364 Vol.
No
90-114
$69,008 Vol.
No
115-139
$48,700 Vol.
No
140-164
$16,923 Vol.
No
165-189
$8,347 Vol.
No
190-214
$3,264 Vol.
No
215-239
$4,806 Vol.
No
240+
$4,113 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ভলিউম
$553,270শেষ তারিখ
Aug 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://x.com/elonmuskরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
ভলিউম
$553,270শেষ তারিখ
Aug 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://x.com/elonmuskরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা