Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a likely daily maximum of 34–36°C in Guangzhou on August 17, driven by typical late-summer subtropical monsoon conditions featuring high humidity, weak steering flow, and scattered afternoon convection. Persistent cloud cover and thunderstorm timing can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through reduced insolation, while breaks in activity or stronger southerly flow allow readings to reach the mid-30s. Ensemble spreads from sources like the ECMWF and China Meteorological Administration highlight this narrow range, reflecting modest uncertainty in exact convective initiation and boundary-layer mixing. Historical August climatology shows similar variability, with official observations often resolving near these values when no tropical cyclone influences the region.