Recent model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies highlight an incoming cold air mass and shear line expected to trigger thunderstorms across Guangzhou on October 1, moderating daytime highs from the recent 35–38°C range under subtropical high influence. This setup favors peak temperatures clustering near 32–35°C, consistent with historical early-October averages of 30.7°C and the 35.2°C record, though localized heating before widespread convection or model spread on timing could push isolated readings higher. Trader emphasis on 36–37°C outcomes reflects uncertainty in exact intensification of rainfall and wind patterns, with resolution hinging on official maximum observations. Updated short-range forecasts and observational data releases over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.