Recent forecasts for Mexico City indicate a highest temperature near 25–26°C on August 21, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward those outcomes. At 2,240 m elevation, the city’s subtropical highland climate typically produces August daily highs averaging 24°C, with afternoon convective showers and cloud cover frequently capping peaks. Current model guidance points to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, limiting solar heating while the ongoing rainy season maintains moderate humidity. Recent early-August observations reached 29°C under clearer conditions, but the shift toward increased moisture and cloudiness supports the consensus around 26°C as the most probable maximum. Updated National Meteorological Service or international model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final verification data for market resolution.