**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.** This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market. Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHighest temperature in Wellington on July 14?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?
15°C 95%
16°C 3.3%
17°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
নতুন
$45,062 Vol.
নতুন
$45,062 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
95%
16°C
3%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 95%
16°C 3.3%
17°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
নতুন
$45,062 Vol.
নতুন
$45,062 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
9°C or below
$770 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$353 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,781 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$5,966 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$11,813 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$9,583 Vol.
95%
16°C
$8,650 Vol.
3%
17°C
$3,392 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$614 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$492 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.**
This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions.
NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market.
Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
ভলিউম
$45,062শেষ তারিখ
Jul 14, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.**
This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions.
NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market.
Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$45,062শেষ তারিখ
Jul 14, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.** This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market. Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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