**Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” because ongoing U.S.-brokered talks have produced only a June 2026 trilateral framework focused on phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese Armed Forces deployment, and Hezbollah disarmament—not formal diplomatic recognition.** Hezbollah rejected the framework outright, while Lebanese officials have tied any deeper ties to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative’s requirement of Palestinian statehood, an outcome opposed by Israel’s current government. Recent Rome negotiations through August 2026 remain narrowly scoped to security implementation amid sporadic border incidents, with Lebanon’s domestic anti-normalization laws and limited public support creating further structural barriers. With months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline, these political and security constraints underpin the consensus against full normalization.