**Traders assign a 95.5% probability to neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock leaving the Senate during 2026, reflecting Ossoff’s strong position as the sole Georgia Democrat facing voters this cycle and the absence of any resignation signals for either incumbent.** Ossoff advanced unopposed through the May 2026 Democratic primary and holds consistent leads in general-election polling against Republican nominee Mike Collins, with race ratings from outlets such as Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections classifying the contest as Likely or Lean Democratic. Warnock’s term extends through 2029, placing his next election in 2028. Both senators remain active in office with no reported health issues, ethics investigations, or other developments prompting departure. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a late-campaign development sharply eroding Ossoff’s support before November, an unforeseen personal or legal event forcing resignation, or an unusually low-turnout environment that flips the result in a state decided by narrow margins in prior cycles.