Traders assign closely matched probabilities across thresholds from 1°C down to -5°C for Buenos Aires’s minimum temperature on August 22 because global and regional forecast models show notable spread in overnight radiative cooling and cold-air advection under typical Southern Hemisphere winter conditions. Clear skies and calm winds favor rapid surface heat loss, potentially driving readings several degrees below climatological averages near 5–8°C, while any increase in cloud cover, wind, or a moderating air mass can limit the drop. Differences in model guidance on frontal timing and boundary-layer moisture contribute to the dispersed odds, with official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and ensemble outputs still converging on the final value only hours ahead. New model runs and local observations over the coming day will likely sharpen the consensus before resolution.